Why is Netanyahu starting a cataclysmic new war when he can get the same results through a ceasefire, and why he is betting the house on Iran staying out.
Love this. Beautifully written and has captured the picture that happened, happening, and is about to happen.
I think the rest of the world, the USA’s silent or reluctant response is worrying and also negligence to the Middle Eastern and the whole world for that matter given the parties with interest at play and/or may be involved in the conflict as you have narrated.
Iran’s involvement could change the equation of where this conflict is heading and as you mentioned, America’s involvement on the side of Israel would risk Russia backing Iran, a scenario which would be worse than what is happening now in the middle or Ukraine for that matter.
Let's hope Isreal finds some sense and soon before the whole thing gets out of hand.
This is a decent write-up but one added piece of information is that Netanyahu probably realised that Hezbollah is not as strong as he feared and so is prepared to push forward.
The downfall of an increasingly-professionalised military force like Hezbollah is their command-and-control system suffers from the same problems of all hierarchical, centrally controlled, military forces that once certain command nodes are destroyed they are unable to adequately respond to attacks. Israel’s pager attacks were so shocking that it probably did more than any single thing to restore their reputation amongst their Arab allies and enemies.
In full agreement with Dimi except for the timing implicit in the last paragraph. Indeed, Washington (Biden) could have used a big stick in the immediate aftermath of October 7 and he had many reasons to do so. He could have fully embraced Israel after that awful attack, and at the same time, isolated Netanyahu, the leader had repeatedly worked against his and Obama's administrations, and thrown gas on the fires burning in Gaza and the West Bank over his decade(s) in office. He had the perfect setup: Netanyahu's disastrous policy of thinking he could keep the rabid dog Hamas on a leash without getting his hand ripped off, and his months earlier attempt to disempower the Israeli judiciary and the consequent public outcry an backlash in the streets. But Biden chose not to for reasons opaque to me (I am no expert/diplomat). But to do so now would give Trump, on record to give carte blanche to Netanyahu, too great an opportunity to use to his advantage in our way too close election. So too late for that stick now, IMHO. Seems we are stuck until November (if we are lucky, just November!) with Netanyahu essentially dictating American policy in that region. Your thoughts Dimi?
Love this. Beautifully written and has captured the picture that happened, happening, and is about to happen.
I think the rest of the world, the USA’s silent or reluctant response is worrying and also negligence to the Middle Eastern and the whole world for that matter given the parties with interest at play and/or may be involved in the conflict as you have narrated.
Iran’s involvement could change the equation of where this conflict is heading and as you mentioned, America’s involvement on the side of Israel would risk Russia backing Iran, a scenario which would be worse than what is happening now in the middle or Ukraine for that matter.
Let's hope Isreal finds some sense and soon before the whole thing gets out of hand.
This is a decent write-up but one added piece of information is that Netanyahu probably realised that Hezbollah is not as strong as he feared and so is prepared to push forward.
The downfall of an increasingly-professionalised military force like Hezbollah is their command-and-control system suffers from the same problems of all hierarchical, centrally controlled, military forces that once certain command nodes are destroyed they are unable to adequately respond to attacks. Israel’s pager attacks were so shocking that it probably did more than any single thing to restore their reputation amongst their Arab allies and enemies.
In full agreement with Dimi except for the timing implicit in the last paragraph. Indeed, Washington (Biden) could have used a big stick in the immediate aftermath of October 7 and he had many reasons to do so. He could have fully embraced Israel after that awful attack, and at the same time, isolated Netanyahu, the leader had repeatedly worked against his and Obama's administrations, and thrown gas on the fires burning in Gaza and the West Bank over his decade(s) in office. He had the perfect setup: Netanyahu's disastrous policy of thinking he could keep the rabid dog Hamas on a leash without getting his hand ripped off, and his months earlier attempt to disempower the Israeli judiciary and the consequent public outcry an backlash in the streets. But Biden chose not to for reasons opaque to me (I am no expert/diplomat). But to do so now would give Trump, on record to give carte blanche to Netanyahu, too great an opportunity to use to his advantage in our way too close election. So too late for that stick now, IMHO. Seems we are stuck until November (if we are lucky, just November!) with Netanyahu essentially dictating American policy in that region. Your thoughts Dimi?