15 Comments

Love this. Beautifully written and has captured the picture that happened, happening, and is about to happen.

I think the rest of the world, the USA’s silent or reluctant response is worrying and also negligence to the Middle Eastern and the whole world for that matter given the parties with interest at play and/or may be involved in the conflict as you have narrated.

Iran’s involvement could change the equation of where this conflict is heading and as you mentioned, America’s involvement on the side of Israel would risk Russia backing Iran, a scenario which would be worse than what is happening now in the middle or Ukraine for that matter.

Let's hope Isreal finds some sense and soon before the whole thing gets out of hand.

Expand full comment
author

Thank you! And yes, let's hope so, indeed.

Expand full comment

This is a decent write-up but one added piece of information is that Netanyahu probably realised that Hezbollah is not as strong as he feared and so is prepared to push forward.

The downfall of an increasingly-professionalised military force like Hezbollah is their command-and-control system suffers from the same problems of all hierarchical, centrally controlled, military forces that once certain command nodes are destroyed they are unable to adequately respond to attacks. Israel’s pager attacks were so shocking that it probably did more than any single thing to restore their reputation amongst their Arab allies and enemies.

Expand full comment
author

Yep - very good point, esp re the price of changing from a guerilla org to a de-facto standing army.

Expand full comment

This analysis is incredibly naive and oblivious of the big picture The assumption is that each round of the battle for Israel's annihilation exists in isolation, and the only legitimate considerations for Israel are the hostage deals at the end. It appears in your opinion Israel should not have retaliated to the Oct 7 attack. It should have just taken the L and signed a hostage deal. Have you seriously considered the implication of such an approach for Israel's long term survival? If every maniac (to quote Bib Dillen) can harrass Israel, displace its citizens, maim them and kill them at a cost that maniac considers acceptable, how is the existence of Israel viable? Are you completely oblivious to the assymtery of Israel vs the entire Arab Muslim world?

Expand full comment

In full agreement with Dimi except for the timing implicit in the last paragraph. Indeed, Washington (Biden) could have used a big stick in the immediate aftermath of October 7 and he had many reasons to do so. He could have fully embraced Israel after that awful attack, and at the same time, isolated Netanyahu, the leader had repeatedly worked against his and Obama's administrations, and thrown gas on the fires burning in Gaza and the West Bank over his decade(s) in office. He had the perfect setup: Netanyahu's disastrous policy of thinking he could keep the rabid dog Hamas on a leash without getting his hand ripped off, and his months earlier attempt to disempower the Israeli judiciary and the consequent public outcry an backlash in the streets. But Biden chose not to for reasons opaque to me (I am no expert/diplomat). But to do so now would give Trump, on record to give carte blanche to Netanyahu, too great an opportunity to use to his advantage in our way too close election. So too late for that stick now, IMHO. Seems we are stuck until November (if we are lucky, just November!) with Netanyahu essentially dictating American policy in that region. Your thoughts Dimi?

Expand full comment
author

Afraid you're right. The latest messaging out of Washington is, no ceasefire before election. Which obviously adds extra motivation for Netanyahu to secure as much impact as possible while he still can. It's like Cast Lead - launched in the interregnum between Bush Jr and Obama - but so, so much worse.

Expand full comment

I dont quite understand how you could square the circle of the US “embracing” Israel while attacking Netanyahu… what does “embracing” look like if you say Israel is not allowed to respond to the attacks or respond in such a way as to look even more impotent? Well wishes doesn’t work when you are confronted with an enemy that wants to eliminate your existence.

Expand full comment

One might say that Israel is doing what God told it to do, just several thousand years later.

Expand full comment

Israel has a mindset that has been reenforced since WW2. safety and security is paramount.. consequences be damned. The many attempted invasions by arab countries and terrorist attacks has only hardened this position. The only tempering influence has been the United States.

Expand full comment

Time to tell Bibi Netanyahu to stop the war permanently and make a peace or not one penny more, not one weapon more. At least we can disentangle ourselves from his genocidal war with the Palestinians. He is a war criminal period. He cares nothing for Israeli lives as long as he is in power. Yes, I am of Jewish heritage but wrong is wrong.

Expand full comment

“Yes, I am of Jewish heritage…” what does that mean? There were Jews who acted as funktionshäftling during the second war. How are you any different?

Expand full comment

I am opposed to Bibi Netanyahu’s genocidal war on the Palestinians. I support Israel’s existence, but I see the Palestinians needs too. I am an American first and foremost. You are mistaken. You don’t know me at all. Did you ever think maybe people went along with the Nazis to survive? You don’t know for sure what you will do until you back is against the wall. You response says more about you than me. Too bad you can’t see when wrong is wrong.

Expand full comment

Here's the problem: you claim to support Israel's existence but are against the war, yet how is Israel meant to exist if an eliminationist organisation like Hamas can commit an attack like October 7 and there be no response to it? There is a strain of thinking that assumes all the problems originate with Israeli actions and that if Israel changes their response then ipso facto the Palestinians will accept not only the existence of the State of Israel but the Jews as a people. This thinking attributes no agency to the Palestinians and the large body of Palestinian and Arab Muslim thought that Israel ought to be destroyed and a majority of Jews either forcibly deported or killed.

Now throughout Jewish history there is a long line of funktionshäftling behaviour. Jews who did what they must to survive by betraying their community. It goes even beyond that to Jews adopting the ideas of their enemies and advocating the Jewish community change to survive or thrive. Sometimes this comes in the mildest form like in German in the 19th Century where Jews were urged to change like the Protestant reformation in order to be accepted by the wider German community, other times Jews who converted to Christianity only to then betray their former community, or Jews who will denounce other Jews to the authorities to gain some sort of favour with them.

In this context you are doing little different. You are adopting the language of the people who believe that Israel should not exist and the Jews should not be in the land. Your intention might be to stop the war and your desire might be for Israel to exist, but when you use the language of those who wish for Israel to be wiped off the face of the map then you fit in the long line of funktionshäftling behaviour.

Expand full comment

Ridiculous! You can understand the murder of the innocent people on October 7 and the murder of innocent Palestinians. There is a huge difference between Israel and its right wing government under a crook, Netanyahu. You don’t have to give every Jew a Carte Blanche because they are Jewish any more than you should despise or kill someone for being a Jew. That is insanity.

Expand full comment